NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 16 Mar 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Mar 16 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 076 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 MAR 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z

TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST FLARE WAS A C9/1F

AT 16/1838UT IN REGION 8906 (S16W37). THIS REGION HAS DECAYED

FURTHER SINCE YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH IT STILL RETAINS SOME MAGNETIC

COMPLEXITY. REGION 8910 (N11E18) CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MANAGED TO

GENERATE A C6/SF FLARE AT 18/1420UT.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW

TO MODERATE. REGION 8906 REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE OF M-CLASS

ACTIVITY.  THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A MAJOR FLARE IN THIS REGION.

C-CLASS FLARES AND ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN REGION

8910.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 MAR-19 MAR

CLASS M    50/50/50

CLASS X    05/05/05

PROTON     05/05/05

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           16 MAR 184

PREDICTED   17 MAR-19 MAR  180/175/170

90 DAY MEAN        16 MAR 175

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAR  000/003

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAR  001/004

PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAR-19 MAR  005/008-005/008-005/008

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 MAR-19 MAR

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                15/15/15

MINOR STORM           05/05/05

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                15/15/15

MINOR STORM           10/10/10

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01