NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 15 October 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Oct 15 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 9198 (S31E54) was
the most active, producing several C-class subfaint flares.  Region
9194 (S12E23) exhibited some growth, but produced no flares.  Two
filament disappearances were reported overnight, the largest being a
7-degree filament centered on N25W31.  However, available SOHO/LASCO
and EIT data do not indicate any DSF-associated CME.  A long
duration C3 flare at 15/0836UT was reported without optical
correlation, although EIT imagery suggests the likely source as
newly numbered Region 9199 (old 9169), located at N12E68.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days.  A chance for isolated
moderate-level flare activity exists for regions 9194, 9198, and 
possibly 9199.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  Some
indications of weak high speed stream effects from a coronal hole
became evident during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active
periods, and minor storm periods at higher latitudes, are possible
in association with the coronal hole effects through day one,
followed by reduced activity for days two and three.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Oct 161
Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct  165/175/180
90 Day Mean        15 Oct 176
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  027/042
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  007/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  015/018-012/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01