NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 15 November 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Nov 15 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to low levels. Isolated
C-class flares occurred, the largest of which was a C5/1b at 15/0246
UTC from Region 9223 (S14W61). The visible regions were mostly
stable with no significant growth or decay noted. New Region 9234
(N20E22) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There is a fair chance for isolated M-class
activity during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to decline to
normal to moderate levels during the latter half of the forecast
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Nov 147
Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov  150/155/155
90 Day Mean        15 Nov 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov  004/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  007/015-007/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01