NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 15 May 2000

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 May 15 2200 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 136 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 MAY 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z

TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. SEVEN M-CLASS EVENTS WERE

REPORTED DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST WAS AN M4/SF AT 15/0902UT

FROM REGION 9002 (N18E70). THIS EVENT ALSO INCLUDED A 640 SFU

TENFLARE AND A FULL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME). REGION 8993

(S21W72) PRODUCED THREE M1 EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8998

(S14E41) ALSO PRODUCED AN M1 EVENT. THERE WERE TWO UNCORRELATED

M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST REGION WAS 8996

(S21E31) WITH AN AREA OF 1280 MILLIONTHS AND 45 SPOTS. IT HAS SHOWN

AN INCREASE IN GROWTH AND SPOT COUNT SINCE YESTERDAY BUT HAS YET TO

PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED:

9003 (S18W40) AND 9004 (N10E61).

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN

AT HIGH LEVELS DUE TO CONTINUED MULTIPLE M-CLASS EVENTS.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED

ACTIVE PERIODS.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE

PERIOD. ACTIVE PERIODS COULD INCREASE ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS

DUE TO POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH THE CME THAT OCCURRED ON 15 MAY, AS

DESCRIBED ABOVE.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 MAY-18 MAY

CLASS M    80/80/80

CLASS X    15/15/15

PROTON     10/10/10

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           15 MAY 244

PREDICTED   16 MAY-18 MAY  245/250/250

90 DAY MEAN        15 MAY 189

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAY  011/012

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAY  012/015

PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAY-18 MAY  010/012-015/015-025/025

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 MAY-18 MAY

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                20/25/50

MINOR STORM           10/10/20

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/10

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                25/30/70

MINOR STORM           15/15/20

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/10