NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 15 August 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Aug 15 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 228 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED, THE LARGEST BEING A C3/SF AT 15/0153UT FROM REGION 9125
(N22E02). REGION 9125 CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST AND MOST
MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX REGION ON THE DISK. THE OTHER MAJOR ACTIVE
REGIONS WERE 9127 (S35W31) AND 9129 (S07E33). TWO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED: 9134 (N06E53) AND 9135 (S15E14).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 AUG-18 AUG
CLASS M    25/25/05
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 AUG 194
PREDICTED   16 AUG-18 AUG  190/185/180
90 DAY MEAN        15 AUG 188
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 AUG  011/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 AUG  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 AUG-18 AUG  012/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 AUG-18 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/35/35
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05