NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 October 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Oct 14 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9182 (N04W90) produced an M1/Sf flare at 14/0840 UTC, as well as several C-class subfaint flares. Region 9194 (S12E36) exhibited some increased activity today, also producing several C-class subfaint flares. Single flares of similar magnitude were noted from a few other regions, including newly numbered Region 9198 (S30E65). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to become predominantly low, with the departure of Region 9182 behind the western limb. A chance of isolated moderate-level activity remains for regions 9194, 9193 (N05W46), and for new regions expected on the eastern limb. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field varied from unsettled to major storm levels, due to a prolonged period of negative Bz accompanied by moderate solar wind speed. Greatest activity occurred during 14/0900-1800 UTC, which saw two periods of storming at minor levels in middle latitudes, and at major levels in higher latitudes. Possible sources of this activity include extended effects of the 09 October CME passage, which commenced yesterday, or trailing effects from a weaker LDE C-flare that occurred about 30 hours after the CME. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to ease to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods. The current geomagnetic disturbance is expected to end during day one, and an onset of high speed stream effects from a coronal hole is expected to emerge thereafter, persisting through day two and tapering off during day three. Isolated minor storming at higher latitudes is possible during this period. III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Oct 163 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 175/185/195 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 177 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 022/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 028/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 018/020-015/015-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/35/30 Minor storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/01
