NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 Mar

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Mar 14 2200 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 074 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 MAR 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z

TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL LOW C-CLASS X-RAY

FLARES OCCURRED PRIMARILY IN REGION 8906 (S16W09). THIS REGION IS

NOW A LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX SPOT GROUP EXCEEDING 900

MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. PARTICULARLY STRONG MAGNETIC

GRADIENTS EXIST WITHIN COMPLEX DELTA CONFIGURATIONS AND SEVERAL NEW

SPOTS DEVELOPED LATE IN THE PERIOD. REGION 8910 (N10E43) PRODUCED

OCCASIONAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS. THIS REGION EXHIBITED CONSIDERABLE

GROWTH SINCE YESTERDAY AND HAS DEVELOPED MINOR MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY.

A 17 DEGREE FILAMENT ERUPTED FROM NEAR S34E38 AT 14/0348Z. THREE NEW

REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY – REGION 8911 (N11W43), 8912 (N15W02),

AND 8913 (S14E66). REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY STABLE.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH

MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. COMPLEX REGION 8906 WILL LIKELY PRODUCE

OCCASIONAL M-CLASS ACTIVITY, AND HAS POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR FLARE.

REGION 8910 WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY WITH THE

SMALL CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET WITH AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED

CONDITIONS BETWEEN 14/09 – 14/12Z.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET LEVELS.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 MAR-17 MAR

CLASS M    75/75/75

CLASS X    40/40/40

PROTON     20/20/20

PCAF       YELLOW

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           14 MAR 183

PREDICTED   15 MAR-17 MAR  175/175/170

90 DAY MEAN        14 MAR 175

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 MAR  002/004

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 MAR  005/006

PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 MAR-17 MAR  005/008-005/008-005/008

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 MAR-17 MAR

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                15/15/20

MINOR STORM           01/01/10

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                20/20/30

MINOR STORM           05/05/15

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01