NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 June 2000

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Jun 14 2200 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 166 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 JUN 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z

TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW.  THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE

PERIOD WAS A C4/SN FLARE AT 14/0149Z FROM REGION 9042 (N20E58).

THIS REGION NOW APPEARS TO BE A MODERATELY LARGE SUNSPOT GROUP WITH

SOME MIXED MAGNETIC FIELDS IN THE TRAILER. REGION 9033 (N25W35)

GENERATED A C1/1F FLARE AT 14/1349Z WITH A SHORT-LIVED TYPE II.

THIS REGION SHOWED SLIGHT DECAY DURING THE PERIOD AND REMAINED

MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX. A MODERATE SIZE H CLASS SUNSPOT WITH

MODERATELY BRIGHT X-RAY EMISSION APPEARED AT N15E87 AND WAS NUMBERED

AS NEW REGION 9046.  NEW REGION 9045 (S15E20) EMERGED NEAR THE NORTH

END OF A LARGE FILAMENT.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO

MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS ON THE DISK ARE CAPABLE OF M-CLASS EVENTS.

THE OCCURRENCE OF AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  THE

FILAMENT NEAR NEW REGION 9045 MAY ERUPT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.  SOLAR

WIND PARAMETERS WERE UNUSUAL IN THAT VELOCITY WAS NEAR NOMINAL BUT

TOTAL FIELD STRENGTH WAS APPROXIMATELY 15 NT AND DENSITY WAS HIGH AT

APPROXIMATELY 55 P/CC.  THIS COULD BE THE TRAILING END OF THE MASS

EJECTION THAT IMPACTED THE EARTH LATE ON 12 JUN.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE

QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE EARLY PART OF 15 JUN.  QUIET TO UNSETTLED

LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE ON 15 JUN THROUGH 17 JUN.  THERE IS A

SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF AN ENERGETIC PROTON EVENT DURING THE PERIOD.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 JUN-17 JUN

CLASS M    50/50/50

CLASS X    10/10/10

PROTON     10/10/10

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           14 JUN 201

PREDICTED   15 JUN-17 JUN  195/192/190

90 DAY MEAN        14 JUN 188

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JUN  010/016

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JUN  017/019

PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JUN-17 JUN  012/012-010/010-008/008

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 JUN-17 JUN

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                30/15/10

MINOR STORM           20/05/05

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                35/20/10

MINOR STORM           20/05/05

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01