NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 July 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Jul 14 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 196 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 JUL 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9077 (N18W09) PRODUCED
AN X5/3B X-RAY EVENT AT 14/1024Z. THIS EVENT HAD AN ASSOCIATED 3000
SFU TENFLARE, A TYPE II SWEEP WITH A SPEED OF APPROXIMATELY 1300
KM/S, AND A STRONG TYPE IV SWEEP. THE SOHO/LASCO IMAGERY INDICATES
A FULL HALO, EARTH DIRECTED CME FROM THIS EVENT. REGION 9077 ALSO
PRODUCED AN M3/1N AT 14/1344Z. CURRENTLY, REGION 9077 IS AN FKC
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA SUNSPOT GROUP AND HAS SHOWN SLIGHT GROWTH SINCE
YESTERDAY. REGION 9085 (N13E47) CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME MINOR GROWTH
DURING THE PERIOD. NEW REGIONS 9087 (S12E71) AND 9088 (N23E25) WERE
NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 9077 AND 9085 AND 9081 (N02E29)
HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE M-CLASS EVENTS. ANOTHER MAJOR EVENT IS
POSSIBLE FROM REGION 9077.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MAJOR STORM. ONE ISOLATED PERIOD
OF MAJOR STORMING OCCURRED FROM 14/1500-1800Z. THIS IS BELIEVED TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE X1/2B EVENT ON 12 JULY. THE X-CLASS EVENT
DESCRIBED IN PART 1A. PRODUCED PROTON EVENTS AT THE GREATER THAN 10
AND 100 MEV WHICH REMAIN IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME. THE GREATER THAN
100 MEV CROSSED THE EVENT THRESHOLD OF 1 PFU AT 14/1040Z, REACHED A
PEAK FLUX OF 310 PFU AT 14/1310Z, AND HAS BEGUN TO DECLINE. THE
GREATER THAN 10 MEV CROSSED THE 10 PFU EVENT THRESHOLD AT 14/1050Z,
AND HAS NOT YET PEAKED (HIGHEST FLUX OBSERVED SO FAR WAS 8370 PFU AT
14/1850Z). THE PCA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE BEGAN AT ABOUT
14/1041Z, PEAKED AT 28.0 DB, AND REMAINS IN PROGRESS. THIS X5 EVENT
PRODUCED THE SECOND GROUND LEVEL EVENT (GLE) OF THE SOLAR CYCLE
(LAST GLE IN NOVEMBER, 1997). THE THULE, GREENLAND NEUTRON MONITORS
MEASURED THE GLE BEGINNING AT 14/1036Z, PEAKED WITH ABOUT A 36%
INCREASE ABOVE BACKGROUND AT 14/1043Z AND APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED AT
14/1415Z. MULTIPLE SHORT DURATION MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS WERE
OBSERVED ON GOES-8 (W074) FROM 14/1740Z TO APPROXIMATELY 14/1810Z
AND 14/1915Z TO 14/2000Z.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF
AN EARTH-DIRECTED FULL HALO CME FROM THE X5/3B EVENT MENTIONED ABOVE
IN 1A. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO SEE AN INCREASE DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE FIRST DAY. MAJOR TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER THE STORM ONSET THROUGH THE SECOND DAY OF THE PERIOD.
BY LATE ON THE THIRD DAY OF THE PERIOD ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO
DECREASE TO ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 JUL-17 JUL
CLASS M 80/80/80
CLASS X 30/30/30
PROTON 99/99/99
PCAF IN PROGRESS
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 14 JUL 204
PREDICTED 15 JUL-17 JUL 200/195/195
90 DAY MEAN 14 JUL 184
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JUL 018/033
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JUL 025/036
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JUL-17 JUL 060/075-100/130-050/060
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 JUL-17 JUL
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 10/10/20
MINOR STORM 25/20/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 60/70/50
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 10/10/15
MINOR STORM 15/10/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 70/80/60