NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 August 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Aug 14 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 227 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED, THE LARGEST BEING A C8/1F FROM REGION 9126 (N06W84) AT
14/0508UT. REGION 9129 (S06E48) PRODUCED A C5/1F AT 14/0742UT.
REGION 9125 (N25E15) REMAINS THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX SPOT
GROUP. IT HAS GROWN IN SIZE AND NUMBER OF SPOTS SINCE YESTERDAY,
HOWEVER IT HAS ONLY PRODUCED ISOLATED OPTICAL SUBFLARES DURING THE
PERIOD. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: 9132 (N23E52) AND 9133
(S09E03).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 AUG-17 AUG
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 AUG 190
PREDICTED   15 AUG-17 AUG  190/185/180
90 DAY MEAN        14 AUG 188
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 AUG  016/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 AUG  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 AUG-17 AUG  010/015-015/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 AUG-17 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/25
MINOR STORM           10/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/35
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05