NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 13 July 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Jul 13 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 195 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 JUL 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH.  A TOTAL OF FIVE M1 X-RAY
EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD.  THREE OF THE EVENTS WERE
PRODUCED BY REGION 9070 (N22W77), ONE CAME FROM REGION 9085
(N12E59), AND ONE WAS OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED.  REGIONS 9070 AND 9077
(N17E03) HAVE MAINTAINED COMPLEX MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATIONS. 
SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OCCURRED IN REGION 9085 AND THE REGION NOW HAS A
BETA GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION.  NEW REGION 9086 (S10W40) WAS
NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.  NUMEROUS MINOR M-CLASS EVENTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 9070, 9077, OR 9085.  ALSO, THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE EVENT FROM ANY OF THE THREE REGIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS.  A SUDDEN
IMPULSE OCCURRED AT 13/0954Z (30 NT, AS MEASURED BY THE BOULDER USGS
MAGNETOMETER).  THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY JUMPED FROM 500 TO OVER 700
KM/S AROUND 13/0900Z  MAJOR STORM LEVELS WERE OBSERVED FOLLOWING THE
SHOCK ARRIVAL.  ONE PERIOD OF SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED
IN THE HIGH LATITUDES FROM 13/1200-1500Z.  THIS SHOCK IS PRESUMED TO
BE RELATED TO CME'S OBSERVED ON 10-11 JULY.  THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS ENHANCED DURING PERIOD.  A
MODERATE (8.0 PERCENT) FORBUSH DECREASE STARTED AT APPROXIMATELY
13/1130Z AND IS STILL IN PROGRESS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THE FIRST DAY.  THE GEOMAGNETIC
FIELD IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON THE SECOND DAY AND BECOME QUIET TO
UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 JUL-16 JUL
CLASS M    80/80/80
CLASS X    30/30/30
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 JUL 232
PREDICTED   14 JUL-16 JUL  230/225/210
90 DAY MEAN        13 JUL 183
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 JUL  012/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JUL  030/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JUL-16 JUL  020/020-012/015-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 JUL-16 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/30/25
MINOR STORM           25/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/35/30
MINOR STORM           35/25/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05