NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 12 November 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Nov 12 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours.
Region 9227 (S11W02) produced today's largest event, a C4/1f flare
at 1426Z. This group continues to show slow growth and is currently
the largest group on the disk at 180 millionths. The other active
regions on the disk were stable and quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a slight chance for an isolated M-class
event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Unsettled
to active levels prevailed for most of the period, but there was a 3
hour minor storm interval from 0300-0600Z. Solar wind observations
indicate the presence of a high speed stream associated with a
favorably positioned, transequatorial coronal hole. The greater than
10 MeV proton event continued to show flux levels above threshold
throughout the period with a very slow decline. The current greater
than 10 MeV flux at 12/2100Z observed by GOES-8 was 12.4 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours. A decline
to mostly unsettled is expected during the second and third days.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end before the
end of 12 November (UTC time).
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     50/05/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 147
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov  145/140/140
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 172
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  021/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  015/018-012/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/25/25
Minor storm           25/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05