NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 September 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Sep 11 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 255 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 SEP 2000 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 9154 (S17W91) WAS THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB. THE LARGEST WAS A C4/SF AT 11/0715Z. REGION 9158 (N29E19), UNIMPRESSIVE NOW IN WHITE LIGHT WITH NO SPOTS VISIBLE, PRODUCED A C1/SF FLARE AT 11/1810Z. SEVERAL SEGMENTS OF A LARGE FILAMENT IN THE NW QUADRANT HAVE DISAPPEARED, BUT THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A CME, ON GROUND OR SPACE-BASED IMAGERY. NEW REGION 9161 (N06E04) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. REGION 9154 STILL MAINTAINS BEST POTENTIAL FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE WEST LIMB. WITH REGION 9154'S DEPARTURE, SOLAR ACTIVITY MAY REACH VERY LOW LEVELS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS ON DAY ONE. EFFECTS FROM THE 09 AUG, M1/1N FLARE ARE POSSIBLE ON DAY ONE. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 SEP-14 SEP CLASS M 10/05/05 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 11 SEP 135 PREDICTED 12 SEP-14 SEP 130/125/125 90 DAY MEAN 11 SEP 179 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 SEP 002/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 SEP 003/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 SEP-14 SEP 012/012-008/010-005/005 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 SEP-14 SEP A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 35/30/20 MINOR STORM 15/15/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 40/35/25 MINOR STORM 20/20/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/05
