NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 September 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Sep 11 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 255 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 SEP 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 9154 (S17W91) WAS THE
PRIMARY SOURCE OF SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES AS IT APPROACHED
THE WEST LIMB. THE LARGEST WAS A C4/SF AT 11/0715Z. REGION 9158
(N29E19), UNIMPRESSIVE NOW IN WHITE LIGHT WITH NO SPOTS VISIBLE,
PRODUCED A C1/SF FLARE AT 11/1810Z. SEVERAL SEGMENTS OF A LARGE
FILAMENT IN THE NW QUADRANT HAVE DISAPPEARED, BUT THERE IS NO
INDICATION OF A CME, ON GROUND OR SPACE-BASED IMAGERY. NEW REGION
9161 (N06E04) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 9154 STILL MAINTAINS BEST POTENTIAL FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY AS
IT ROTATES AROUND THE WEST LIMB. WITH REGION 9154'S DEPARTURE, SOLAR
ACTIVITY MAY REACH VERY LOW LEVELS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE
PERIODS ON DAY ONE. EFFECTS FROM THE 09 AUG, M1/1N FLARE ARE
POSSIBLE ON DAY ONE.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 SEP-14 SEP
CLASS M 10/05/05
CLASS X 01/01/01
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 11 SEP 135
PREDICTED 12 SEP-14 SEP 130/125/125
90 DAY MEAN 11 SEP 179
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 SEP 002/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 SEP 003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 SEP-14 SEP 012/012-008/010-005/005
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 SEP-14 SEP
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 35/30/20
MINOR STORM 15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 40/35/25
MINOR STORM 20/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/05