NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 September 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Oct 10 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity remained low. Region 9182 (N03W33)
continued in a gradual growth phase and developed a mixed-polarity
(beta-gamma) structure in the leading portion of the group. It
produced a long-duration C6/1f flare at 09/2343 UTC associated with
Type II and Type IV radio sweeps, and a full-halo CME. The remaining
regions were unremarkable including newly numbered Region 9191
(N16E66).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There will be a fair chance for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 9182.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active
levels occurred during 10/0600 - 0800 UTC. Quiet to unsettled levels
occurred during the remainder of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 11 October. Field
activity is expected to increase to active to minor storm levels
during 12 - 13 October with major storm periods possible at high
latitudes due to an expected CME passage.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Oct 140
Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct  145/150/155
90 Day Mean        10 Oct 180
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  010/010-035/035-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/40
Minor storm           10/40/20
Major-severe storm    01/15/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/40
Minor storm           15/40/20
Major-severe storm    01/25/15