NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 10 August 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Aug 10 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 223 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE MOST INTERESTING EVENTS
RECENTLY WERE SEEN IN THE CORONA. LATE YESTERDAY A REPORT OF A HALO
CME ASSOCIATED WITH FLARE ACTIVITY IN REGION 9114 (N11W29) WAS
RECEIVED. THE ACTIVITY WAS SEEN TO OCCUR AT 09/1630Z. TODAY A
PARTIAL HALO CME, HEADED NORTH OF THE ECLIPTIC, OCCURRED AT 0654Z.
THIS EVENT WAS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH CHROMOSPHERIC ACTIVITY IN
REGION 9115 (N18W12). PROMINENCE ACTIVITY WAS SEEN AT S14W90 AND
S27W90. SURGING WAS REPORTED AT N11E90. TWO NEW REGIONS CAME FULLY
INTO VIEW, 9124 (S13E64) AND 9125 (N26E69). REGION 9124 IS THE
LIKELY RETURN OF OLD 9087, THE PRODUCER OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY IN JULY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS. A
TRANSIENT WAS SEEN TO PASS ACE AT APPROXIMATELY 0400Z, FUELING THE
HIGHER LEVELS OF ACTIVITY SEEN A FEW HOURS LATER. THIS CME DOES NOT
HAVE AN OBVIOUS SOLAR SOURCE. ALTHOUGH THE SOLAR WIND SPEED HAS NOW
RETURNED TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS, THE IMF BZ COMPONENT IS STILL
SOUTHWARD, WITH A MAGNITUDE OF -10 NT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. EFFECTS OF THE HALO CME OF 09 AUGUST ARE NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL
LATE IN THE INTERVAL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 AUG-13 AUG
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 AUG 181
PREDICTED   11 AUG-13 AUG  185/190/195
90 DAY MEAN        10 AUG 191
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 AUG  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 AUG  020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 AUG-13 AUG  010/012-010/012-015/018
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 AUG-13 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/40
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/50
MINOR STORM           15/15/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05