NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1 November 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Nov 01 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels. Newly numbered
Region 9218 (N18E39) emerged early in the period, then showed
significant growth as it produced isolated C-class subflares. It was
classed as a simply-structured D-type spot group as the period
ended. Region 9212 (N10E22) showed  an increase in spot count and a
slight increase in magnetic complexity. It produced a single
subflare during the latter half of the period. The remaining spot
groups were stable. Four new spot groups were numbered today
including Regions 9217 (S23W45), 9218, 9219 (N06E66), and 9220
(N08E75).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 9212 and 9218 could produce isolated
M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels during the first two
days. Active levels will be possible on the final day due to coronal
hole effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Nov 204
Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov  210/210/205
90 Day Mean        01 Nov 172
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  007/010-007/010-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/30
Minor storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/35
Minor storm           05/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05