NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1 June 2000
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Jun 01 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 153 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 JUN 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION
9026 (N19E75) PRODUCED AN M2/1F TENFLARE AT 0617Z AS WELL AS
NUMEROUS LESSER-SIZED EVENTS. THIS REGION IS THE LIKELY SOURCE OF
THE EARLIER CME ACTIVITY SEEN BEYOND THE NE LIMB DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. IT IS THE PROBABLE RETURN OF OLD REGION 9006, BORN ON THE
DISK JUST PRIOR TO ITS WEST LIMB PASSAGE ON MAY 18. REGION 9024
(S17E16) EXHIBITED SOME GROWTH, AND ALSO PRODUCED A C8/2B TENFLARE
AT 0732Z. NEW REGION 9027 (N20E04) WAS ALSO NUMBERED TODAY. ACTIVE
REGIONS ELSEWHERE ON THE DISK WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. WEAK SUBSTORMS OCCURRED
DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE RADIAL SPEED OF THE SOLAR WIND
FELL FROM 550 TO 450 KM/S. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS HIGH.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 JUN-04 JUN
CLASS M 50/50/50
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 05/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 01 JUN 148
PREDICTED 02 JUN-04 JUN 155/160/160
90 DAY MEAN 01 JUN 191
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 MAY 009/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 JUN 008/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 JUN-04 JUN 010/010-010/008-005/010
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 JUN-04 JUN
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 20/20/10
MINOR STORM 05/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 25/25/20
MINOR STORM 10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
