NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1 July 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Jul 01 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 183 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 JUL 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST
DAY WAS A C6/SF AT 01/1241 UTC IN REGION 9054 (N13W81). THIS SUNSPOT
GROUP CONTINUES TO DECAY AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. REGION 9062
(S16W04) IS THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE VISIBLE DISK BUT IS NOT
PARTICULARLY COMPLEX AND HAS NOT PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. NEW
REGIONS 9068 (S19E63) AND 9069 (S13E70) ROTATED INTO VIEW.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
ADDITIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 9054 BEFORE IT
EXITS THE VISIBLE DISK. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 JUL-04 JUL
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 JUL 164
PREDICTED   02 JUL-04 JUL  170/175/180
90 DAY MEAN        01 JUL 182
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 JUN  003/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 JUL  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 JUL-04 JUL  010/010-010/010-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 JUL-04 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01