NOAA SEC/USAF SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 May 12 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. On 11 May, Region
758 (S08W61) produced an M1.6/Sf at 0733Z. Region 759 (N12E19)
produced both an M1.4/1N at 1740Z and a C9.9/2B at 0113Z. Both
regions produced several C-class events over the last 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate from 13 through 15 May. Regions 758 and 759 continue to
have a potential for M-class activity with a slight chance for a
major or proton-producing flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluence at geosynchronous orbits reached
high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 13 May, with periods
of active levels on the 15th. A coronal mass ejection which
originated from S10W66 on 11 May at 1946Z, is expected to generate a
shock arrival on the 15th.

III. Event Probabilities 13 May-15 May

• Class M 65/65/65
• Class X 15/15/15
• Proton 15/15/15
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 12 May 117
• Predicted 13 May-15 May 120/115/110
• 90 Day Mean 12 May 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 007/011
• Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 013/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 008/008-010/010-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/25/30
• Minor storm 10/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/35
• Minor storm 10/15/20
• Major-severe storm 05/05/10