NOAA SEC/USAF SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 May 11 2320 UTC

SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. For 11 May, Region
758 (S10W55) generated an M1.2 at 0641Z, an M1.1/1F at 1938Z, and a
series of C-class events over the last 24 hours. This region
continues to maintain strong magnetic intensity, and has a good
potential for further activity. Regions 764 (S10E01) and 763
(S14E70) were newly numbered today, and Region 762 (S11E04) was
reclassified as two regions (Regions 762 and 764).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days. Regions 758 and 759 (N12E33)
continue to harbor a good potential for M-class activity with a
slight chance for a major or proton producing flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbits reached
high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.

III. Event Probabilities 12 May-14 May

• Class M 65/65/65
• Class X 15/15/15
• Proton 15/15/15
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 May 125
• Predicted 12 May-14 May 120/120/115
• 90 Day Mean 11 May 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 006/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 008/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 005/010-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05