NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 9 Sep 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Sep 09 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was high due to an M9/2N flare at
09/2045 UTC in Region 9608 (S27E18). This flare was quite impulsive
and located in centers south and east of the large trailer spots. An
M3/1N flare occurred at 09/1516 UTC in Region 9607 (S17E03). Region
9607 is at the northwest end of the elongated 9608/9607 sunspot
complex. This area continues to grow in sunspot area and magnetic
complexity. Decaying Region 9601 (N13W93) is rotating out of view
without producing significant flares during the past day.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high with M-class flares and possibly another major
flare in the 9607/9608 complex.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled barring any influence from the
09/2045 UTC major flare discussed in Part IA. This forecast may be
modified after CME information is received from the SOHO spacecraft
later this evening or tomorrow. A solar energetic particle event is
currently not expected from this major flare.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M    90/90/90
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Sep 236
Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep  230/220/220
90 Day Mean        09 Sep 162
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep  008/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  008/010-008/012-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01