Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 9 Oct 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
October 9, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 09 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 9653
(S22E11) produced an M1/2f flare at 09/1113 UTC with an associated
Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 504
km/s. A Type IV radio sweep also accompanied this flare.  Earlier in
the period, Region 9657 (N23E58) produced a C7/Sf flare at 09/0741
UTC, which also had an associated Type II sweep with an estimated
shock velocity of 585 km/s.  The rest of the day's activity
consisted of minor C-class and optical sub-flares.  New Region 9658
(S14E68) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 9653 remains capable of producing
M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  High speed
stream effects are believed to be responsible for the elevated field
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels through day one due to high
speed coronal hole effects.  Active to minor storm conditions are
possible late on day two through day three due to CME effects
associated with the M1/2f at 09/1113 UTC.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Oct 176
Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct  175/175/170
90 Day Mean        09 Oct 182
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  012/015-015/015-025/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/50
Minor storm           10/20/30
Major-severe storm    01/15/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/45/45
Minor storm           15/25/35
Major-severe storm    01/15/20

SpaceRef staff editor.