Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 9 Nov 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
November 9, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 09 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Activity remained at high levels due to an abundance of
M-class flares (none of which reached major flare criteria). Region
9690 (S18E16) was responsible for most of the M-class flares
including the largest of the day: an M3/1n flare at 09/0856 UTC
associated with minor centimetric radio bursts. This region remained
the largest and most complex on the disk with an area exceeding 1400
millions of the visible disk. It continued to grow in area and
complexity with multiple magnetic delta configurations and strong
magnetic field gradients. Region 9687 (S20W31) produced a
long-duration M1/Sf flare at 09/1841 UTC associated with weak Type
II and IV radio sweeps and minor centimetric radio bursts. This
region remained moderate in size and magnetic complexity with some
polarity mixing evident in its leader spots, but showed no
significant changes. Region 9692 (N06W39) showed significant growth
during the period, but produced no flares. It remained
simply-structured. Region 9684 (N06W95) rotated out of view. No new
regions were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Activity is expected to be at moderate
to high levels. M-class flares are expected. Region 9690 may produce
a major flare during the period. Region 9687 also provides a slight
chance for an isolated major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 10
MeV proton event continued as it hovered near event threshold during
the latter half of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected during most of the period. However, active conditions will
be possible during the first two days. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to end on 10 November. There will be a
slight chance for another proton flare during the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M    90/90/90
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Nov 271
Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov  260/265/270
90 Day Mean        09 Nov 211
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  012/015-015/015-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05

SpaceRef staff editor.