NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 9 Nov 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Nov 09 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Activity remained at high levels due to an abundance of M-class flares (none of which reached major flare criteria). Region 9690 (S18E16) was responsible for most of the M-class flares including the largest of the day: an M3/1n flare at 09/0856 UTC associated with minor centimetric radio bursts. This region remained the largest and most complex on the disk with an area exceeding 1400 millions of the visible disk. It continued to grow in area and complexity with multiple magnetic delta configurations and strong magnetic field gradients. Region 9687 (S20W31) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare at 09/1841 UTC associated with weak Type II and IV radio sweeps and minor centimetric radio bursts. This region remained moderate in size and magnetic complexity with some polarity mixing evident in its leader spots, but showed no significant changes. Region 9692 (N06W39) showed significant growth during the period, but produced no flares. It remained simply-structured. Region 9684 (N06W95) rotated out of view. No new regions were numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. M-class flares are expected. Region 9690 may produce a major flare during the period. Region 9687 also provides a slight chance for an isolated major flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continued as it hovered near event threshold during the latter half of the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected during most of the period. However, active conditions will be possible during the first two days. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on 10 November. There will be a slight chance for another proton flare during the period. III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov Class M 90/90/90 Class X 30/30/30 Proton 20/20/20 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Nov 271 Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 260/265/270 90 Day Mean 09 Nov 211 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 012/015-015/015-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 35/35/30 Minor storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/05
