NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 9 Jan 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jan 09 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Region 9773 (N14W05) produced
an impulsive M9/2b flare at 1801 UTC, with an associated radio burst
of 230 sfu at 2695 MHz. Earlier it had an M1/1f at 1113 UTC. The
region grew significantly in white light and h-alpha during the day,
and evolved magnetically to a beta gamma-delta type. It seems to
still retain its potency, and is prominent from its location near
center disk. Region 9767 (S18W61)  generated a few c-class events as
it simplified. Newly numbered Region 9780 (S11W49) emerged on the
disk. Today's 10.7 cm solar flux measurement may be flare enhanced.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 9767 and 9773 each have the potential for M-class
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days.
High-speed solar wind is expected to buffet the magnetosphere
throughout the period, bringing occasional episodes of minor
storming to local nighttime sectors.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jan 229
Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan  230/235/240
90 Day Mean        09 Jan 222
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  015/015-015/020-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05