NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 9 Jan 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 09 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate due to a single M1/1N event
that occurred at 09/0650 UTC, from Region 9306 (N11E43). Other than
the M-class event noted, only occasional C-class events occurred
during the period. One new region was numbered, 9307 (S13W59).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to persist
at the low level.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet throughout the interval.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jan 166
Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan  175/180/185
90 Day Mean        09 Jan 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05