NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 9 Dec 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Dec 09 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours. Region 9727 (S20W10) produced today's largest flare: a C6/1f at 1541 UTC. There were several additional C-class flares during the day: most of these were from Regions 9727 and 9733 (N14E58). However, a C2 flare at 0421 UTC was observed to originate from the southeast limb and was associated with a narrow-width CME. The region subsequently rotated into view and was assigned 9734 (S12E81). Region 9727 showed some growth today with the development of spots north of the dominant leader spot. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate during the next three days. The main sources for activity are expected to be Region 9727 and Region 9733. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on the third day. III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec Class M 60/60/60 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Dec 224 Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 215/210/210 90 Day Mean 09 Dec 219 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 007/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 012/012-010/010-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 15/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor storm 20/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/01/01
