Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 9 Dec 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
December 9, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Dec 09 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours.
Region 9727 (S20W10) produced today's largest flare: a C6/1f at 1541
UTC. There were several additional C-class flares during the day:
most of these were from Regions 9727 and 9733 (N14E58). However, a
C2 flare at 0421 UTC was observed to originate from the southeast
limb and was associated with a narrow-width CME. The region
subsequently rotated into view and was assigned 9734 (S12E81).
Region 9727 showed some growth today with the development of spots
north of the dominant leader spot.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the next three days. The main sources for
activity are expected to be Region 9727 and Region 9733.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on the third day.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Dec 224
Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec  215/210/210
90 Day Mean        09 Dec 219
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec  007/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  012/012-010/010-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.