NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 9 Aug 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 09 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 9570 (S12E20) produced
the largest event during the period with a C7/1f flare at 09/1834
UTC.  A long duration C3 event was observed at 09/1122 UTC.  There
were no optical reports with this event, however, it was likely
associated with a CME observed off of the west limb from the
SOHO/LASCO images.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Regions 9563 (N24W61) and 9566  (N17W45) are both
capable of producing possible M-class events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  One active period was
observed at 09/0600 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for August 10th and 11th.  Active
conditions are possible on August 12th due to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M    50/50/30
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Aug 163
Predicted   10 Aug-12 Aug  155/150/150
90 Day Mean        09 Aug 150
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  010/010-010/010-015/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/40
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05