NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 9 Aug 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 09 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9570 (S12E20) produced
the largest event during the period with a C7/1f flare at 09/1834
UTC. A long duration C3 event was observed at 09/1122 UTC. There
were no optical reports with this event, however, it was likely
associated with a CME observed off of the west limb from the
SOHO/LASCO images.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9563 (N24W61) and 9566 (N17W45) are both
capable of producing possible M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. One active period was
observed at 09/0600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for August 10th and 11th. Active
conditions are possible on August 12th due to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M 50/50/30
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 05/05/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 163
Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 155/150/150
90 Day Mean 09 Aug 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 010/010-010/010-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/40
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05