NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 Sep 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Sep 08 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate due to M1/Sf flares in both
Regions 9601 (N13W79) and 9608 (S26E33). The first occurred at
08/0457 UTC in 9608 and the second at 08/1923 UTC in 9601. Region
9601 is decaying as it approaches the west limb and 9608 continues
to grow in sunspot area and magnetic complexity as it approaches
central meridian. There were also C-class subflares in several other
Regions, most notably 9610 (S14E48) and 9613 (S17W68). New Regions
9614 (N13W19) and 9615 (N12E64) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. M-class flares are probable and a chance of an
isolated major flare in Regions 9601 or 9608 remains.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Sep 250
Predicted   09 Sep-11 Sep  240/230/220
90 Day Mean        08 Sep 161
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  008/010-008/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01