NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 Oct 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Oct 08 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Only a couple of minor C-class flares occurred during the period. The most significant event of the day was an optically uncorrelated C4 flare at 08/0819 UTC. A Type II radio sweep with a shock speed of 581 km/s accompanied this flare. New Region 9657 (N23E70) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Isolated M-class events are possible. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods between 08/1200 and 1800 UTC. High speed stream effects are believed to be responsible for the slightly elevated field levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods due to high speed stream effects for the first day of the period. The long duration C2/Sf flare and filament eruption on 06/1713 UTC likely had an associated coronal mass ejection that may create active periods on days two and three. III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct Class M 25/25/25 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Oct 171 Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 165/170/170 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 182 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 001/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 015/015-015/015-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/40 Minor storm 20/15/20 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 50/40/50 Minor storm 25/20/25 Major-severe storm 10/05/10
