Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 Oct 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
October 8, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 08 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Only a couple of
minor C-class flares occurred during the period.  The most
significant event of the day was an optically uncorrelated C4 flare
at 08/0819 UTC.  A Type II radio sweep with a shock speed of 581
km/s accompanied this flare.  New Region 9657 (N23E70) was numbered
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Isolated M-class events are possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods between 08/1200 and 1800 UTC.  High speed stream
effects are believed to be responsible for the slightly elevated
field levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods due
to high speed stream effects for the first day of the period. The
long duration C2/Sf flare and filament eruption on 06/1713 UTC
likely had an associated coronal mass ejection that may create
active periods on days two and three.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Oct 171
Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct  165/170/170
90 Day Mean        08 Oct 182
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  015/015-015/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/40
Minor storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/40/50
Minor storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/05/10

SpaceRef staff editor.