Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 Nov 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
November 8, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 08 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Activity remained at high levels. Region 9687 (S19W18)
produced an impulsive M9/1n flare at 08/0704 UTC associated with a
460 SFU Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep (est. velocity 818
km/sec). It also produced an impulsive C8/Sn flare at 08/1904 UTC,
possibly associated with Type II (est. velocity 928 km/sec) and Type
IV radio sweeps. This region showed no significant changes prior to
or following the major flare, but it remained moderate in size and
magnetic complexity, mainly due to the presence of a small delta
magnetic configuration within its interior spots. Region 9690
(S13E31) remained the most impressive sunspot group on the disk with
an area exceeding 1000 millions of the visible disk. It produced
occasional flares including three M-class, the largest of which was
an M4/2f at 08/1535 UTC. This region continued to increase in spot
count, area, and magnetic complexity with strong magnetic gradients
and a magnetic delta configuration within its leader spots. Region
9684 (N06W82), which was responsible for the X1/3b flare on 04
November, began a relatively quiet west limb passage. The remaining
regions were unimpressive in most respects. No new regions were
assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Activity is expected to be at moderate
to high levels. M-class flares are expected. Regions 9690 and 9687
have the potential for major flare production.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit continued.
The greater than 10 MeV flux was 35 PFU and gradually decreasing at
the close of the period. This event began at 04/1705 UTC and reached
a maximum of 31,700 PFU at 06/0215 UTC. The polar cap absorption
event that began on 04 November ended today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first day
increasing to quiet to active levels on the last two days. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early on 09
November. There will be a slight chance for another proton flare
during the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M    90/90/90
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     75/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Nov 248
Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov  245/250/250
90 Day Mean        08 Nov 210
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  008/010-015/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/40
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/40/40
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.