NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 May 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 May 08 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9934 (S16W19)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C4/Sf flare occurred at
08/1324 UTC. This region has shown a slight increase in penumbral
coverage. It has also acquired a delta magnetic class spot in the
trailing portion of the spot cluster. A C1/Sf occurred in Region
9935 (S17W41) at 07/2245 UTC. Optically uncorrelated, minor C-class
flares comprised the rest of the days flare activity. New Region
9946 (S08E65) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9934 has the potential of producing
M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. A
chance for isolated active conditions exists for the first day of
the forecast, due to a CME passage from the M1 event at 07/0346 UTC.
III. Event Probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 May 187
Predicted 09 May-11 May 190/195/195
90 Day Mean 08 May 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
