Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 March 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
March 8, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Mar 08 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was high, due to the occurrence of an
impulsive M5/1b flare from Region 9368 (N26W33) at 08/1118 UTC.  A
Type-II radio sweep and CME were also observed in association with
this event.  Region 9368 has exhibited a further increase in size,
spot count, and magnetic complexity, and is the largest active
region on the visible disk.  Other activity of note today included a
C5/Sf flare from Region 9370 (N10W12) and a general elevation in
background x-ray flux, with optically uncorrelated long duration
enhancements.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Regions 9368, 9370, and 9371 (N22W86) are all possible
sources of isolated M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity has been quiet to unsettled, and
greater-than-2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days. 
The CME activity noted in section 1A above, while not appearing
primarily earth-directed, could be a source of isolated active
conditions by day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Mar 167
Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar  170/170/165
90 Day Mean        08 Mar 162
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  005/007-005/007-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/30
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.