NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 Jan 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jan 08 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9767 (S21W42) produced a
C7/1f flare at 08/1725Z. Little changes were noted in this
moderately complex beta-gamma region. Minor C-class flares were also
observed in Region 9773 (N14E06). The most impressive event of the
period was the long duration C9 X-ray event at 08/2025Z. The event
began at around 08/1800Z as a very  large prominence eruption and
CME was observed on the SE limb. A second CME soon followed as a
large filament erupted near the NW limb. The X-ray event was still
in progress at issue time. New Regions 9777 (S06E64), 9778 (S15E67),
and 9779 (N29E65) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. Brief substorms
caused one active period at Boulder from 0600-0900 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled early, then increasingly more active
through January 11. The effects of a high speed solar wind stream
are anticipated the latter half of the interval.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jan 199
Predicted   09 Jan-11 Jan  190/195/205
90 Day Mean        08 Jan 222
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan  010/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  010/008-015/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/40/40
Minor storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05