NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 Jan 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Jan 08 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Occasional C-class x-ray events occurred, the largest a C5 at 1105 UTC. Region 9302 (N18E25) is the probable source of that flare, as inferred from YOHKOH/SXT data. One new region was numbered, 9306 (N12E58), a mature bipole with twelve spots. There may be other regions soon to appear at east limb, as indicated by surging near NE12. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist at the low level. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet throughout the interval. III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan Class M 20/20/20 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Jan 167 Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 170/175/180 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 174 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05
