Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 Jan 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
January 8, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 08 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Occasional C-class x-ray events
occurred, the largest a C5 at 1105 UTC. Region 9302 (N18E25) is the
probable source of that flare, as inferred from YOHKOH/SXT data. One
new region was numbered, 9306 (N12E58), a mature bipole with twelve
spots. There may be other regions soon to appear at east limb, as
indicated by surging near NE12.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to persist
at the low level.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet throughout the interval.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jan 167
Predicted   09 Jan-11 Jan  170/175/180
90 Day Mean        08 Jan 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.