NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 Feb 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Feb 08 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated C4.0 flare at 08/1043 UTC. Region
9810 (N11W14) has shown some growth in spot count and extent. Two
new regions were numbered today: Region 9821 (S14E16) and Region
9822 (N18E69). Region 9822 appeared as a 150 millionths, 9 spots,
Dao class group and suggests a potentially active region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
The indication of activity on the northeast limb may increase flare
potential later in the forecast period as this area rotates onto the
disc.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Greater than
2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced to moderate
levels with a peak value of 985 pfu at 08/1730 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Greater than 2 MeV
electrons at geosynchronous orbit are expected to be enhanced to
moderate levels.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M 30/25/25
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 192
Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 185/180/175
90 Day Mean 08 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 012/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 010/010-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
