NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 Feb 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 08 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9335 (N09E01) produced a
C1/Sf at 08/2030 UTC. This area has decayed somewhat since yesterday
but contains some mixed polarity fields. Other disk regions have
decayed a little or remain small and simple. Newly numbered Regions
9344 (N31E13) and 9345 (S20E19) emerged on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 9335 remains the most likely source of flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Feb 157
Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb  155/150/150
90 Day Mean        08 Feb 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  005/010-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01