NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 Feb 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 08 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9335 (N09E01) produced a
C1/Sf at 08/2030 UTC. This area has decayed somewhat since yesterday
but contains some mixed polarity fields. Other disk regions have
decayed a little or remain small and simple. Newly numbered Regions
9344 (N31E13) and 9345 (S20E19) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 9335 remains the most likely source of flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 157
Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 155/150/150
90 Day Mean 08 Feb 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 005/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01