NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 Dec 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Dec 08 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours. Newly assigned Region 9733 (N14E67) produced an M3 flare at 0634 UTC. The event was associated with a CME: coronagraph observations clearly show this CME is not Earth directed. The region produced additional C-class level events. Region 9718 (S06W63) continues to be the largest group on the disk but was relatively quiet and is showing slight decay. Region 9727 (S22E03) continues to be magnetically complex with a beta-gamma-delta, but was also stable and appears to be gradually decaying. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 9733 and 9727 are expected to dominate the activity, although Region 9718 could possibly contribute an energetic event as well. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days. III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec Class M 75/75/75 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Dec 221 Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 215/210/205 90 Day Mean 08 Dec 219 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 010/008-012/012-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/30/25 Minor storm 10/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/30/25 Minor storm 10/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/01
