NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 8 Aug 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 08 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Regions 9557 (S21W93), 9563
(N24W48), and 9566 (N17W33) all produced C-class subflare activity
during the past day. Region 9557 has rotated out of view beyond the
west limb without producing major flare activity. New Region 9573
(S08E70) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class activity is still possible in Region 9557 from
beyond the west limb as well as an isolated M-flare in Region 9563.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M    50/50/30
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Aug 167
Predicted   09 Aug-11 Aug  160/155/150
90 Day Mean        08 Aug 150
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug  008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01