NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 7 Sep 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Sep 07 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate due to an M1/1F flare at 07/1538 UTC in Region 9601 (N13W64). This flare was associated with type II/IV radio sweeps and minor discrete bursts across the spectrum. Region 9608 (S26E45) also generated a number of smaller flares. These areas remain the largest and most complex groups on the sun and have exhibited frequent small flares and plage fluctuations. Region 9610 (S13E60) has rotated fully into view as an E-type sunspot group of about 300 millionths in area. New Regions 9611 (N10W23), 9612 (N22E40), and 9613 (S17W52) were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. M-class flares, as well as an isolated major flare, are possible in Regions 9601 and 9608. Region 9610 appears capable of a low-level M-class flare as well. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep Class M 75/75/75 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Sep 226 Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 230/230/230 90 Day Mean 07 Sep 160 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 003/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 005/008-005/008-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
