NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 7 Oct 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 07 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels. Only a few minor
C-class flares occurred during the period. One event of note, was a
12 degree filament (centered at S21E12) that erupted between 07/1643
and 1651 UTC. An associated long duration C2 x-ray flare and an
optical sub flare occurred in the area of the filament's eruption.
LASCO/EIT imagery has not updated sufficiently, to be able to
ascertain at this time, if a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was created
from the disappearing solar filament (DSF). Due to the central
location of the DSF, an accompanying CME could very possibly be
geoeffective. Two new regions were numbered: 9655 (S21E52) and 9656
(S21W13).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
mostly low levels. Isolated M-class events are possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
at geosynchronous orbit remained at elevated levels but below the
proton event threshold of 10 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are
possible on the second day of the forecast due to a small recurrent
coronal hole and its associated high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Oct 173
Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct  170/175/175
90 Day Mean        07 Oct 182
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  008/010-015/015-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/20
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/25
Minor storm           05/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01