NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 7 Nov 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 07 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Activity increased to high levels. Region 9690 (S17E45)
produced an M5/1n flare at 07/2001 UTC associated with relatively
minor centimetric radio bursts. This region showed no significant
changes, but remained large and magnetically complex. It also
produced numerous flares including three low-level M-class. Region
9684 (N06W68) was stable as it approached the west limb, but
remained magnetically complex. Region 9687 (S20W02) also showed a
complex magnetic structure, but was quiet during the period. New
Regions 9691 (N07E64), 9692 (N07W10), 9693 (N11E03), and 9694
(N14E79) were numbered. Today's Penticton noon 10.7 cm radio flux
reading of 269 SFU was flare enhanced. The morning reading of 230
SFU was more reflective of the current state of the Sun.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Activity is expected to be at moderate
to high levels. M-class flares are expected. There will be a chance
for isolated major flare activity from Regions 9684, 9687, and 9690.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to minor storm
levels through 07/0600 UTC, then decreased to mostly quiet to
unsettled levels for the remainder of the period as CME effects
subsided. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began on 04
November ended at 06/2315 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
that began on 04 November continued. The polar cap absortion event
continued as well.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with brief active
intervals possible during the first half of the period. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end late on 09 November. The
polar cap absorption event is expected to end early on 09 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    80/80/75
Class X    25/25/20
Proton     99/90/30
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 269
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov  230/230/220
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 208
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  060/112
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  012/012-012/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05