NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 7 Mar 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Mar 07 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Several minor
C-class flares with no optical correlation occurred during the
period. The largest appears to be a C6 that was in progress at the
time of this writing. Region 9851 (S02W24) has shown penumbral
growth in the lead complex of the spot group today. Region 9845
(N17W86) has almost completely exited the west limb. The rest of
the spotted groups have been unchanged or in varying degrees of weak
decay. New Region 9864 (N18E69) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. An
isolated minor storm condition was observed at Fredericksburg at
06/2100 UTC, believed to be a result of a large, transequatorial
coronal hole during it’s waning stage. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit has been elevated throughout
the period following the passage of the high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the forecast
period.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M 20/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 180
Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 180/175/175
90 Day Mean 07 Mar 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 016/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 008/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
