Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 7 Mar 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
March 7, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Mar 07 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low, though there has been a
modest increase in flare activity.  The largest event of the day was
a C7/Sf from Region 9368 (N25W20) at 07/1927 UTC, and was in
progress at the time of today's 10cm flux observation.  As a result,
the 10cm flux was moderately enhanced by perhaps 10 sfu.  A long
duration event also occurred today, a C5/Sf from Region 9371
(N21W79) at 07/1502 UTC.  Regions 9368 and 9371 exhibited further
growth in areal coverage, and produced several lesser C-Class
flares, as did Regions 9165 (S10W62) and 9170 (N09E00).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  The greatest chance for isolated M-class activity
exists for Region 9368, and for Region 9371 as it rotates beyond the
west limb within the next 24 hours.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled, with one
isolated active period observed at Boulder during 08/1200-1500 UTC. 
The greater-than-2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the next three days,
barring an earth-directed CME.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Mar 177
Predicted   08 Mar-10 Mar  165/165/165
90 Day Mean        07 Mar 162
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  007/008-005/007-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.