NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 7 Jul 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 07 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 9530 (S19W38) produced
a C9/Sf flare at 07/0331 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep
(shock velocity 440 km/sec).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M    10/15/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jul 118
Predicted   08 Jul-10 Jul  120/125/130
90 Day Mean        07 Jul 160
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01