NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 7 Jan 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jan 07 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 007 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar Activity was at low levels.  Region 9767 (S22W30)
produced a C3.8/Sf flare at 07/1422 UTC.  Region 9767 has slightly
simplified in structure but retains a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration.  Region 9773 (N12E22) shows signs of entering the
decay phase.  The large leader spot from yesterday has broken up
into a number of smaller spots. Three new regions were numbered
today:  Region 9774 (N12W37), Region 9775 (S06E37), and Region 9776
(N10E59).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 9767 and Region 9773 have the
potential for an M-class event.  Two large positive polarity coronal
holes are presently centered along Carrington longitude 355. One
hole is at central latitudes and one at southern latitudes.  These
coronal holes will begin rotating into geoeffective position by day
three of the forecast period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
conditions possible.  Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for
day one and two of the forecast period.  By day three of the period
coronal hole effects could produce an isolated active condition
especially at higher latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jan 189
Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan  195/200/200
90 Day Mean        07 Jan 221
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  005/008-005/008-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/10