NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 7 Jan 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 07 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 007 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The most impressive event of
the period was a CME launched from beyond the NW limb at about 0400
UTC. An H-alpha filament disappeared in conjunction with the
eruption. The largest flare was a C5 x-ray event associated with
Region 9302 (N20E39) at 06/2350 UTC. The event was seen in the EIT
imagery from SOHO. Two new regions, 9304 (N11E58) and 9305 (S07E64)
were assigned, bringing the number of spotted regions to 13.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jan 177
Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan  175/180/185
90 Day Mean        07 Jan 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  010/007-010/007-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05