NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 7 Feb 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 07 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only a few C-class flares
occurred, all without reported optical flares. All of the sunspot
groups currently on the disk are relatively small and magnetically
simple. New Region 9343 (N03E08) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind information
suggests that the high speed stream observed on 06 Feb is passing,
returning solar wind parameters to nominal levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Feb 164
Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb  165/165/165
90 Day Mean        07 Feb 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  005/010-005/010-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01