NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 7 Dec 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Dec 07 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
9727 (S22E16) produced today's largest flare: a C8/2f at 0817 UTC.
This region is the most magnetically complex sunspot group on the
disk and is showing slow growth. Region 9718 (S06W51) is the largest
group on the disk, but has a relatively simple magnetic
configuration and did not produce any flare activity. New Region
9732 (N03E64) rotated into view today and showed occasional
brightenings. A partial halo CME was observed in coronagraph images
today: the event crossed  the C2 field of view in about 80-90
minutes, beginning at 1430 UTC. Most of the mass appeared to be over
the northwest limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9727 and 9718 are considered to be the most
likely sources for M-class level activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours, and
predominantly unsettled for the 2nd and 3rd days.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Dec 226
Predicted   08 Dec-10 Dec  225/220/210
90 Day Mean        07 Dec 219
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec  007/008-010/008-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/30
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/35
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05