NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 7 Dec 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Dec 07 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  The largest event
was an M1/Sf at 06/2230 UTC from Region 9246 (S11W62).  This region
also produced two other optically correlated C-class events, and
other uncorrelated C-class activity also occurred.  An LDE C5 flare
with an associated loop prominence was observed on the northwest
limb at 07/1940 UTC.  The likely source of this activity is Region
9242 (L=N20) behind the west limb.  Four new regions - all in Bxo
beta configuration - were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low.  An isolated chance for further moderate activity
exists for Region 9246,  and possibly for Region 9254 (N10E10).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled, with
single periods of active levels observed at both mid and high
latitudes, during 0900-1200 and 1200-1500 UTC, respectively.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled throughout the period, with a
greater chance of active levels and isolated minor storming on day
two, under the influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M    25/25/20
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Dec 144
Predicted   08 Dec-10 Dec  145/150/150
90 Day Mean        07 Dec 176
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec  014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec  015/015-020/025-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/35/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01