NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 7 Aug 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 07 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 9557 (S20W78)
produced an M1/Sf flare at 07/0737 UTC as well as several C-class
subflares throughout the past day. The sunspot group maintains
moderate size and magnetic complexity. Region 9563 (N24W34) also
produced C-class subflare activity. New Region 9572 (N16E23) was
numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9557 is the most likely candidate for M-class
activity and may produce an isolated major flare before it rotates
around the west limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Aug 166
Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug  165/160/155
90 Day Mean        07 Aug 149
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  014/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug  015/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01